News | Forex Optimum



UK's economy guided by Brexit developments – Rabobank

Jane Foley, the senior FX strategist at Rabobank, points out that it is their central view that Brexit will be delayed beyond October 31, but since a delay is not a solution, they see risk that EUR/GBP will be trading close to current levels on a 3-month view.

  • “The Brexit related news reports yesterday reached fresh levels of animosity. One report suggested that the UK government would be prepared to withhold cooperation in security and defence for countries that pushed the UK into a Brexit extension. Given the likelihood of a general election in the UK in the coming months, investors are attempting to read between the lines of many of the recent headlines to try and determine how much is electioneering on the part of the UK government.
  • The FTSE 100 has recovered some of last week’s losses but in the current environment, it would appear that GBP weakness is not sufficient to protect the UK’s largest companies from the impact of slowing global demand. This implies that while Brexit related news remains the primary driver for GBP, investors are likely to be drawn by tomorrow’s releases of UK August production data and monthly GDP.
  • Even if tomorrow’s data releases do not enhance the clouds hanging over the UK economy, slowing global growth and domestic political uncertainty will ensure that GBP remains vulnerable. While the Brexit delay scenario and related 3-month forecast of EUR/GBP0.90 is our central view, on a no-deal Brexit we see scope for EUR/GBP to surge towards parity and on a Brexit deal we would expect EUR/GBP to drop back to the 0.85 area with a downside bias.”

You may also be interested:

02:30 17.02.2020
Schedule for today, Monday, February 17, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast 04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) December -1% 1.3% 04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) December -8.2% -3% 08:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings 10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, y/y December 1.4% 1.4% 11:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report 13:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases December -1.75
23:51 14.02.2020
Key events for next week: RBA and Fed Meeting's Minutes, UK and Australia unemployment rate, UK, Canada and Japan CPI, UK retail sales, eurozone, UK and US PMI’s
On Monday, at 04:30 GMT Japan will announce a change in industrial production for December. At 08:00 GMT the Eurogroup meeting will take place/ At 11:00 GMT, the Bundesbank monthly report will be released. At 13:30 GMT Canada will report a change in foreign securities purchases for December. On Tuesday, at 00:30 GMT in Australia the RBA Meeting's Minutes will be released. At 07:00 GMT, a meeting of the Council of Ministers of Finance and Economics will take place. At 09:30 GMT UK will report a
19:06 14.02.2020
U.S.: Consequences of a move to the far left – Rabobank
FXStreet reports that Philip Marey, a US strategist at Rabobank, take a look at the campaign promises made by Bernie Sanders, at present the strongest candidate from the far left, and a self-described ‘Democratic Socialist.’ The US dollar could head lower if a 'radical' Democratic candidate wins the elections. “A ‘Red President’ – supported by Democratic majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives – would reverse Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation efforts, and make a radical
Bonuses VIP